Introducing the Geppetto Robot Jobs Index
Most automation risk tools answer a theoretical question: which jobs could robots do? The Geppetto Jobs Index answers a different question: which jobs are robots actually doing, right now, at commercial scale — and which jobs have structural protections that theory misses?
Why Existing Tools Fall Short
The most widely cited automation risk assessment — the 2013 Oxford study by Frey and Osborne — estimated that 47% of US jobs were at high risk of automation. That figure has been cited in thousands of articles and shaped public understanding of automation risk for over a decade.
It has also been substantially wrong in its predictions about which jobs would automate and on what timeline. Many high-scoring occupations have grown rather than shrunk. The study was built on expert surveys about theoretical automability, not on deployment data about what robots are actually doing.
The Geppetto Jobs Index is built differently. It uses deployment data alongside theoretical scores.
How the Index Is Calculated
Four inputs, each scored 0–100, combined into a weighted composite:
| Input | Weight | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford Automation Score | 25% | Theoretical task automability (Frey & Osborne 2017) |
| IFR Deployment Reality | 30% | Where commercial robots are actually deployed at scale |
| McKinsey Task Automation Rate | 25% | % of tasks in this role technically automatable (updated 2025) |
| Geppetto Robot Density Score | 20% | Number of commercial robots in Geppetto's directory targeting this role |
The IFR Deployment Reality score is the most distinctive input. It is not a theoretical assessment. It measures where robots are actually deployed, how many units are operating, and what specific tasks they are performing. A profession where thousands of commercial robots are actively working scores higher than one where robots theoretically could perform the tasks but haven't been deployed at scale.
The Living Index
The Geppetto Robot Density Score updates automatically when new robots are added to the directory. If a new warehouse picking robot is validated and added to Geppetto's catalog, every profession that robot affects gets an updated density score, which triggers a recalculation of their composite automation risk score.
This means the Jobs Index is a living document — it reflects the current state of robot deployment, not a static assessment made at one point in time. Explore the Jobs Index →
The Highest-Risk Professions in 2026
The professions scoring 80+ on the Geppetto Jobs Index are those where robots are already doing the core tasks at commercial scale:
- Floor cleaners and commercial janitors (91/100)
- Warehouse pickers and packers (88/100)
- Assembly line workers — repetitive (85/100)
- Toll booth operators (84/100)
- Fast food fry station operators (82/100)
- Parking lot attendants (81/100)
These are not theoretical future risks. These are roles where robot deployments are measured in hundreds of thousands of units.
The Lowest-Risk Professions in 2026
The professions scoring below 20 on the Geppetto Jobs Index are those with structural protections:
- Emergency room surgeons (8/100)
- Psychologists and therapists (6/100)
- Criminal defence lawyers (5/100)
- Architects — creative design (4/100)
- Entrepreneurs (3/100)
These scores are low not because robots couldn't theoretically assist in these roles — they can and do — but because the core value of these roles is irreducibly human: real-time judgment in genuinely novel situations, empathic relationship as core deliverable, or creative synthesis under unstructured constraints.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Geppetto Robot Jobs Index?
The Geppetto Robot Jobs Index scores 200+ professions on a 0–100 scale of automation risk, combining Oxford automation susceptibility scores, IFR deployment reality data, McKinsey task automation rates, and Geppetto's own robot density metric. It is updated automatically as new robots are added to the Geppetto directory.
How is the Jobs Index different from other automation risk tools?
Most automation risk tools measure theoretical automability. The Jobs Index adds IFR deployment reality data — where commercial robots are actually deployed at scale — and Geppetto's robot density score, which measures how many commercial robots in Geppetto's directory target each profession. This grounds the index in deployment reality rather than theoretical possibility.
How often is the Jobs Index updated?
The Geppetto Robot Density Score updates automatically when new robots are added to the directory. IFR deployment scores update annually. Oxford and McKinsey scores are reviewed when significant new research changes the consensus.
What does a score of 80+ mean?
A score of 80+ means robots are already displacing this role at commercial scale — not theoretically, but in actual deployed systems. The displacement may be in specific contexts rather than all settings, but commercial deployment is underway.
What does a score below 20 mean?
A score below 20 means structural factors protect this role from robot displacement for the foreseeable future. These protections include: unstructured physical environments that robots cannot navigate, real-time judgment in genuinely novel situations, and human empathy and trust as the core deliverable of the role.
Data sources: Geppetto Robot Jobs Index (March 2026); IFR World Robotics 2025; Frey & Osborne (2017); McKinsey Global Institute (November 2025); ONET 2025. Last updated: March 2026.*